《Science》—关注欧洲动力电池发展策略

近年来，欧洲汽车工业也在逐步向电动化转变。早在2015年12月初，包括荷兰在内的一些欧洲国家就加入了“国际零排放车辆联盟”，承诺在2050年以前，让所售新车全部为新能源车型。2016年4月，荷兰提出自2025年起禁售燃油车计划。2017年7月，法国宣布将在2040年前彻底禁售燃油车，同时将通过经济手段激励法国民众使用新能源车辆。该计划也是法国履行《巴黎气候协定》承诺的一部分。同月，英国政府宣布，将于2040年开始全面禁售传统柴汽油车。英国政府称，空气污染是公共卫生的最大威胁，禁止销售燃油车将有助于解决空气污染问题。到2050年，所有在路上行驶的汽车都必须是零排放的。汽车电动化离不开动力电池，且动力电池在电动汽车总成本中占据着很大比重，而目前全球动力电池生产几乎被东亚三国（中国、日本和韩国）所垄断。因此，欧盟内部围绕欧洲是否应该自己生产动力电池这一话题一直在进行激烈讨论，并且相关车企包括大众、戴姆勒、奥迪等已经在开展行动。

9月14日，Science杂志刊发题为A “technology-smart” battery policy strategy for Europe的文章，作者为瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院Martin Beuse、Tobias S. Schmidt和Vanessa Wood，讨论欧洲在电动汽车用动力电池上应该采取的策略和措施。三位作者中Martin Beuse和Tobias S. Schmidt常年关注能源政治策略，Vanessa Wood则是锂离子电池领域的科学家。本文特翻译这篇文章，给大家带来欧洲学术界关于动力电池的的一些观点和看法。

文章亮点：

（1）鉴于动力电池设计、生产制造的复杂性，欧洲不应从一开始就谋求能彻底独立地生产制造电池；

（2）谋求研究下一代电池实现跨越式发展似乎行不通，因为现有动力电池领先企业有深厚知识积累；

（3）欧洲应先将本土市场培育大，与电池生产各个环节的企业进行广泛合作，缓而图之。

A “technology-smart” battery policy strategy for Europe

Martin Beuse¹, Tobias S. Schmidt¹, Vanessa Wood²

¹Energy Politics Group, ETH Zurich, Haldeneggsteig 4, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

²Materials and Device Engineering Group, ETH Zurich, Gloriastrasse 35, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Email: tobiasschmidt@ethz.ch; vwood@ethz.ch.

The world market for battery and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs), including passenger cars, buses, and freight trucks, is growing rapidly. Currently, almost all lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cells for EVs are produced by East Asian (Chinese, Japanese, and Korean) manufacturers. Meanwhile, the European automotive industry, among the largest in the world, generates 4% of European gross domestic product, and 12 million jobs; however, Europe houses less than 1% of the global Li-ion battery cell manufacturing capacity, and this production capability largely addresses niche markets. Manufacturing of batteries for EVs is thus at the center of industry policy discussions at the European Commission (EC), with calls for “European sovereignty” in Li-ion battery manufacturing. Here, we offer insights from battery research and innovation studies to suggest that catching up with East Asian companies is worthwhile, but can only be achieved step by step, by bringing competences to Europe through strategic global collaborations, supported by creation of an attractive European market for EVs.

全球电池和包括乘用车、客车和重型卡车在内的混合动力汽车市场正在快速增长。目前，几乎所有的电动汽车用的锂离子电池都是由东亚（中国、日本和韩国）的企业生产的。目前，尽管欧洲汽车工业生产了欧洲4%的产品并创造了1200万工作机会，但欧洲拥有的电池产能不到全球的1%，并且这些产能很大程度只针对利基市场（备注：利基市场指由已有市场绝对优势的企业所忽略的某些细分市场，并且在此市场尚未完善供应服务。）。因此，生产制造用于电动汽车的动力电池成为欧盟委员会（EC）产业政策讨论的核心，呼吁锂离子电池制造业实行“欧洲主权”。本文中，我们表达对电池研究和创新研究的见解，旨在表明追赶东亚公司是值得做的，但只能通过战略性全球合作将竞争引入到欧洲、同时辅以创建对电动车具有吸引力的欧洲市场逐步来完成。

EV batteries consist of cells packaged together and controlled by a battery management system. The cell makes up roughly 70% of the cost of an automotive battery, which currently amounts to more than 40% of the cost of a fully electric car. Bolstered by national industrial policies and the demands for Li-ion batteries in consumer electronics (with 2 billion cell phone batteries and 350 million tablet and laptop batteries manufactured in 2017), East Asian manufacturers have achieved continual improvements in terms of performance (e.g., lifetime, energy density) and cost of batteries. Recently, several East Asian players announced the construction of gigafactories in Europe (battery cell manufacturing factories with output capacity in excess of 1 GWh/year; e.g., CATL in Germany, LG Chem in Poland, Samsung and SK Innovation in Hungary).

电动汽车用电池包括电池包和控制电池包工作的电池管理系统（BMS）。动力电池的成本几乎占电池包成本的70%，占电动汽车成本的40%以上。受国家产业政策和消费类电子产品中锂离子电池需求的支持（2017年生产了20亿部手机电池和3.5亿片平板电脑和笔记本电池），东亚制造商在电池性能（如寿命，能量密度）和成本上不断取得进步。最近，一些东亚电池制造商宣布将在欧洲兴建动力电池超级工厂（这些超级工厂的产能将超过1 GWh/年，其中CATL拟建工厂在德国，LG化学工厂在波兰，三星和SKI工厂在匈牙利）。

High-level policy-makers in Europe have expressed the importance of the battery industry in ensuring Europe’s continued competitiveness in the automotive sector and have called for exclusively European-owned cell factories, an “Airbus for batteries.” For example, Maroš Šefcˇovicˇ, vice-president of the European Commission, stated: “By 2025, the European battery market could be…as large as the entire Danish economy. Do we want to leave this to our global competitors”?

欧洲的高层政策制定者已经表达了电池行业在确保欧洲汽车行业持续竞争力方面的重要性，并呼吁欧洲建立自己的电池工厂，即“电池空客”。例如，欧盟委员会副主席Maroš Šefcˇovicˇ就表示：“到2025年，欧洲电池市场可能……与整个丹麦经济一样大。 我们想把它留给我们的全球竞争对手吗？”

To seize this opportunity, the EC estimates an investment requirement of €20 billion, or 10 to 20 European gigafactories. To support these ambitions, the EC has developed a Strategic Action Plan together with representatives from industry and academia, outlining potential actions and funding opportunities (potentially up to several billion €) . In line with these ambitions, three consortia (led by Saft, TerraE, and Northvolt) have formed to build European-owned gigafactories, supported by the European Investment Bank (e.g., with a €52.5 million loan for Northvolt’s demonstration cell factory).

为了抓住这个机会，欧洲委员会预计投资需求为200亿欧元，或建立10-20个超级工厂。为了实现该目标，欧盟委员会与行业和学术界的代表一起制定了战略行动计划，列出了潜在行动方案和融资机会（可能高达数十亿欧元）。根据这些雄心壮志，三个财团（由Saft，TerraE和Northvolt领导）已经成立以建立欧洲自己的超级工厂，由欧洲投资银行支持（例如，为Northvolt的示范工厂提供5250万欧元的贷款）。

However, the European automotive industry is currently not financially invested in these consortia and has not yet indicated if and when they want to enter large-scale cell manufacturing themselves. The industry broadly acknowledges the relevance of understanding battery cells and has invested in various R&D activities; however, their views regarding cell manufacturing differ. Some automotive companies consider battery cells a commodity-like component, sourced from suppliers according to specification. These firms see added value primarily in downstream activities of the supply chain (see the figure). Other companies consider ownership in cell manufacturing worthwhile; however, they have not yet entered the arena and discuss leapfrogging to “next generation” technologies, such as solid-state batteries.

然而，目前欧洲汽车工业界尚未对这些财团进行财务投资，并且也没有表示他们是否以及何时自己打算大规模生产制造电池。业界广泛认可动力电池的重要性，并对相关的研发活动进行了投资;。但是，他们对自己生产电池的看法不同。一些汽车公司认为电池组件是类似商品的组件，根据规格从供应商处采购即可。这些公司主要在供应链的下游活动中看到附加值（见图）。其他公司则认为应该掌握电池生产制造，然而他们还没有入场并讨论跨越“下一代”技术，如固态电池。

Given this current state of affairs, it is important for policy-makers, the automotive industry, and the cell manufacturing industry to consider three questions in order to determine a common strategy.

鉴于目前的状况，政策制定者、汽车行业和电池制造业必须考虑三个问题以确定一个共同的方案。

BATTERIES: A STRATEGIC COMPONENT?

电池：战略组件？

Is the battery cell a commodity-like part or a core component of strategic value to the European automotive industry? Currently, we consider battery cells as core components for three reasons. First, they are at the center of an EV’s product architecture, meaning that their properties influence many other components (e.g., chassis material choice) and the overall vehicle design (e.g., through changed center of gravity). Second, the development of new cells is highly dynamic. For instance, the performance specifications of battery cells, such as the energy and voltage they can deliver at a certain current, depend on the materials used and their design. Each year, new cell designs evolve, providing opportunity for strategic differentiation of products among manufacturers.

对于欧洲汽车行业来说，电池是普通商品类零件还是战略价值的核心组件？目前，我们认为电池单元是具有战略价值的核心组件，原因主要有三点：首先，动力电池处于EV产品架构的中心，这意味着其特性会影响许多其他组件（如底盘材料选择）和整车设计（如通过改变的重心）。其次，新电池的发展是高度动态的。例如电池单元的性能规格，电池在特定电流下可以提供的能量和电压取决于所使用的材料及其设计。每年新的电池设计都在不断发展，为制造商之间的产品战略差异化提供了机会。

Third, cells are complex to design, involving a multitude of trade-off decisions. Cells may be optimized for applications with high energy or power requirements, for cycle life, or for cost. For example, decreasing cost and cobalt dependence through increasing the nickel content in the cathode might enable higher cell voltage but decrease cell life. To manage these trade-offs and make smart design decisions, close interaction between the cell manufacturer and automaker is important. In other words, manufacturing close to markets fosters innovation. Local ownership (e.g., through equity joint ventures) further increases transfer and exchange of tacit knowledge and intellectual property. Given the cell’s centrality, dynamic development, and complexity, policies that aim at localizing cell manufacturing industry can thus result in a competitive advantage. Conversely, simply sourcing battery cells from foreign players will lead to strong dependence on their performance.

第三，电池设计复杂，涉及多种权衡决策。电池可以针对特定需求进行优化，如高能量或功率要求、循环寿命或成本。例如，增加阴极材料镍含量可以降低成本和对钴金属的依赖性，从而达到更高的电池电压，但此举会降低电池寿命。为了管理这些权衡并做出明智的设计决策，电池制造商和汽车制造商之间的密切互动非常重要。换句话说，贴近市场的制造业促进了创新。地方所有权（例如通过股权合资企业）进一步增加了隐性知识和知识产权的转移和交换。鉴于动力电池的中心性、动态发展性和复杂性，旨在本地化生产制造动力电池的政策可以产生竞争优势。相反，简单地从国外电池制造商处采购电池将导致自身对电池性能的强烈依赖。

LEAPFROGGING?

跨越式发展？

Is it possible for the European battery industry to leapfrog East Asian suppliers with the next generation of battery cell technology? Leapfrogging current market leaders is difficult, if not impossible because, even for incumbents, production of high-performing cells at continuous quality levels is challenging, largely due to the dually complex nature of battery cell technologies (complex in both design and manufacturing, with interplay between both). Changes in one cell manufacturing step require adjustments in other steps and most likely in the design of the cell as well. Likewise, changing cell design requires adjustments not only in other design features, but also to the manufacturing. For example, to obtain a cell that discharges faster, a manufacturer might change the size of the materials that store the Li. This will require reformulation of the slurry and changes to the slurry mixing. In turn, this may require changes to the slurry coating and drying parameters (which are used to get the active materials onto the foils that are stacked or wound into the cell), the additives added into the liquid electrolyte, and the formation protocol (i.e., how the cell is cycled prior to shipping to ensure stability).

欧洲电池工业界是否有可能通过下一代电池技术超越东亚供应商？如果不是不可能的话，超越当前的市场领导者是困难的，因为即使对现有企业来说持续质量稳定地生产高水平的电池也是很具挑战的，这主要是电池设计本身很复杂导致的（设计和制造复杂，二者相互作用也很复杂）。电池制造中一个步骤的变化需要在其他步骤中进行调整，并且很有可能在整个电池设计中进行调整。同样，改变电池设计不仅需要调整其他设计特征，还需要调整制造。例如，为了获得放电更快的电池，制造商可能会改变储锂的材料的尺寸，而这将需要重新配制浆料并改变浆料混合过程。同时，这可能需要改变浆料涂布和干燥参数（用于将活性材料放到堆叠或卷绕到电池中的箔片上）、添加到液体电解质中的添加剂和化成方案（即如何在装运前对电池进行循环以确保稳定性）。

The ability to improve upon existing dually complex technology relies heavily on tacit knowledge, which is gained by experience with the product and the manufacturing process and which is not easily copied or transferred. In the battery field, the move from laboratory experiments or pilotscale demonstrations to full-scale manufacturing requires knowledge gained from direct experience with full-scale production. Dual complexity also increases the need for interaction among actors along the supply chain, making a technology harder to replicate. For batteries, knowledge is spread across multiple domains, from materials processing to manufacturing and integration. Incumbent firms can leverage not only their assets, but also their accumulated tacit knowledge and long-term partnerships across the value chain to evolve with a technology’s trajectory.

对现有的复杂技术进行提高的能力在很大程度上依赖于隐性知识，这种隐性知识是通过产品和制造过程的经验获得的，并且不容易复制或转移。在电池领域，从实验室实验或试点到全面制造的转变需要从全面生产的直接经验中获得的知识。双重复杂性也增加了供应链中参与者之间互动的需求，使得技术难以复制。对于电池，知识分布在多个领域，从材料加工到制造和集成。现有公司不仅可以利用其资产，还可以利用其在整个价值链中积累的隐性知识和长期合作伙伴关系来发展技术进而实现发展。

The last decades of battery research indicate that future cell generations will draw heavily from knowledge gained through designing and manufacturing current-generation cells at large scale. Li-ion batteries are on a clear trajectory, with several future developments already on the horizon (e.g., high-voltage cathodes, high-capacity anodes, and solid electrolytes) that will evolve sequentially, building on existing but often tacit design and manufacturing knowledge. The process of discovering new battery materials to actually commercializing a battery cell with these materials is very time consuming and can take up to 20 years. Literature on catching up suggests that technological discontinuities in dually complex technologies, like the emergence of the next-generation battery technology, do not necessarily help new entrants overtake incumbents, but rather strengthen the position of incumbents, who can leverage their cumulative knowledge base. High entry barriers are also exemplified by multiple accounts of battery technology startups failing in the past. Therefore, a leapfrogging strategy does not seem promising. If Europe wants to successfully compete in battery cell manufacturing, it will have to catch up step by step.

最近几十年的电池研究表明，下一代的电池将大量吸取现有大规模设计、制造电池所获得的知识。锂离子电池处于一个明确的发展轨道上，在现有但通常隐形的电池设计和制造知识的基础上，未来可见的进展（例如，高压阴极，高容量阳极和固体电解质）将依次发展。从发现新的电池材料到其商业化应用，这个过程非常耗时并且可能花费长达20年。最新的学术进展表明，双重复杂技术中的技术不连续性，如下一代电池技术的出现，并不一定有助于新进入者超过现有者，反而会强化现有企业的地位因为其可以利用累积的知识库。过往多个电池技术初创公司失败的例子也说明了电池制造领域的高门槛。因此，跨越式战略似乎并不乐观。如果欧洲想要成功地参与电池制造业的竞争，就只能逐步追赶。

REALISTIC?

现实？

Is it a realistic policy strategy to build a European battery cell industry? History has shown that catching-up in Li-ion battery manufacturing is possible. Korea caught up to Japan, and China, with the announcement of multiple gigafactories, is set to triple the rest of the world’s combined capacity.

构建欧洲电池行业是否现实？历史表明，锂离子电池制造业的追赶是可能的。韩国赶上了日本，中国宣布将建立多个电池超级工厂将世界其他地区的电池总产能增加两倍。

To catch up in a dually complex product like batteries, it is necessary to transfer tacit knowledge (in manufacturing equipment integration and product design), as well as enable interactive learning up- and downstream of cell manufacturing.

为了赶上像电池这样的复杂产品，有必要转移隐性知识（在制造设备集成和产品设计中），以及在电池制造的上下游实现互相学习。

A starting point for transferring capital goods can be to acquire existing equipment or an entire factory from an established player. For example, leading Chinese companies purchase their battery manufacturing lines from Japanese and Korean companies. However, it is not sufficient to focus on individual parts of the value chain, as most tacit knowledge is gained from interactions across the value chain.

转移资本货物的起点可以是从现有的参与者那里获得现有设备或整个工厂。例如，领先的中国公司从日本和韩国公司购买电池生产线。然而，仅关注价值链的某个部分是不够的，因为大多数隐性知识都是从整个价值链的相互作用中获得的。

For successful catching up, it is paramount that the tacit knowledge be accessible and that domestic companies develop the capability to learn. Korean firms have leveraged licenses from Japanese producers and hired retired Japanese engineers to transfer their product design knowledge. Chinese firms entered R&D and production partnerships with Japanese and Korean firms. China’s CATL, the world’s fastest growing cell manufacturer, evolved from ATL, a subsidiary of Japanese TDK that produces consumer electronics batteries. Tesla cooperates with Panasonic (Japan) for cell manufacturing in a gigafactory in Nevada, USA, and pursues the pack assembly and software design itself. This partnership was enabled, among other factors, by the huge scale envisioned, making the partnership interesting to an incumbent cell manufacturer like Panasonic. In other words, a substantial market is an important factor in catching up.

为了成功追赶，最重要的是可以获得隐性知识并且国内公司发展学习能力。韩国公司利用日本生产商的许可证，聘请退休的日本工程师转让他们的产品设计知识。中国企业与日本和韩国企业建立了研发和生产合作伙伴关系。中国的CATL是世界上发展最快的电池制造商，由日本TDK的子公司ATL发展而来，ATL该公司生产消费电子电池。特斯拉与Panasonic（日本）合作，在美国内华达州的超级工厂进行电池制造，并自己进行电池组装和软件设计。导致实现这种合作伙伴关系的因素有很多，其中之一就是超大的产品需求预期，使得像Panasonic这样的电池制造商对此感兴趣。换句话说，实质性的市场是追赶的重要因素。

Europe seems to be an attractive location for cell manufacturing, as demonstrated by the announcements of East Asian firms to build gigafactories. In addition, Europe is not starting from zero. It can build upon strong research facilities and downstream activities, as well as specialized cell manufacturing know-how. If Europe wants to tap this potential and build its own industry, waiting is not an option because the knowledge gap to market leaders is ever widening. The EC has rightfully recognized the need to act. However, policy-makers should not be hung up on the idea of European independence in cell manufacturing from the start. For dually complex technologies, the sensible, theory- and practice-proven approach is to create an attractive home market and learn quickly together with current competitors. This will enable the European industrial players to choose later whether they want to pursue cell manufacturing themselves.

欧洲似乎是一个有吸引力的电池制造地点，正如东亚公司宣布在欧洲兴建动力电池超级工厂所证明的那样。此外，欧洲并非从零开始。电池工业建立在强大的研究设施、下游活动以及专业的电池制造know-how（备注：know-howis a term for practical knowledge on how to accomplish something）上。如果欧洲希望挖掘这种潜力并建立自己的电池产业，那么等待不是一种选择因为与市场领导者的知识差距正在不断扩大。欧盟委员会正确地认识到采取行动的必要性。但是，政策制定者不应该从认为欧洲从一开始就能独立的生产制造电池。对于复杂的技术而言，合理的、理论的和实践证明的方法是创造一个有吸引力的本地市场，并与当前的竞争对手一起快速学习。这将使欧洲工业企业能够在以后选择是否想要自己生产制造电池。

A TECHNOLOGY-SMART POLICY

技术明智的政策

To support this process, a technology-smart policy strategy, considering battery cells’ dual complexity, based on insights from battery research and innovation studies, is needed. The European Union (EU) should put particular emphasis on two elements: First, incentivizing collaborative R&D between companies along the supply chain. Importantly, these incentives should also be available for research consortia that include non-European companies. European companies have already formed such collaborations, predominantly outside Europe (e.g., European BASF and Japanese TODA for a calcination facility in the United States; European Bühler and Chinese Lishen for manufacturing equipment in China). This can be backed up with measures to educate engineers and to secure access to raw materials and capital.

为了支持这一过程，需采取技术明智的政策策略，该策略应建立在对电池研究和创新的深刻洞察上，同时考虑电池的双重复杂性。欧盟应特别强调两个要素：第一，激励供应链上公司之间的协同研发。 重要的是，这些激励措施也应该适用于包括非欧洲公司在内的研究联盟。欧洲公司已经形成了这样的合作关系，主要是在欧洲以外的地区（例如欧洲BASF和日本TODA在美国合作的煅烧设施，欧洲布勒和中国力神在中国合作的制造设备）。这些可以通过培训工程师以及确保能获得原材料和资金来进行支持。

Second, a consistent European EV policy strategy is needed to create an attractive EV market that makes partnerships for current market-leading East Asian firms worthwhile and provides planning security for European firms. Although many European national and subnational governments have already introduced EV support policies, this policy patchwork misses the opportunity to leverage the massive size of the EU’s common car market. We therefore recommend an ambitious yet realistic EU-wide EV target. One option would be to mandate a certain market share of EVs or even completely phase out internal combustion engine cars, as China has done. However, such policy is politically hard to sell. A more realistic alternative is to increase the stringency of the EU’s emissions standard on car fleets to a level that translates into large market shares of EVs.

其次，需要制定一致的欧洲电动汽车政策战略，以创造一个有吸引力的电动汽车市场，既要和当前市场领先的东亚公司构建合作伙伴关系，为要为欧洲企业提供安全方案。虽然许多欧洲国家和地方政府已经出台了电动汽车支持政策，但这些拼凑性的政策忽视了利用欧盟庞大规模普通汽车市场的机会。因此，我们建议实施雄心勃勃但切合实际的适用于欧盟的电动汽车目标。如中国所做的那样，一种选择是要求获得一定的电动汽车市场份额，甚至完全淘汰内燃机汽车。但是，这种政策在政治上难以实施。更现实的替代方案是将欧盟汽车排放标准的严格程度提高到可扩大电动汽车市场份额的水平。

Only once the European industry has started to catch up should the EU consider incentivizing differentiation of European cells through novel chemistry, manufacturing approaches, or design. With an established market for European-made EVs that use cells produced in Europe, differentiating features can be introduced gradually, guided by R&D activities that identify the unique opportunities for batteries within the European automotive sector.

只有欧洲工业开始迎头赶上，欧盟才会考虑通过新的化学体系、制造方法或设计来激励欧洲电池的差异化。当使用欧洲产的电池、产自欧洲的电动汽车市场确立后，在通过研发活动来确定欧洲汽车行业中电池独特机会的指引下，可以逐步引入差异化特征。

文章信息如下：

Martin Beuse, Tobias S. Schmidt, Vanessa Wood. A “technology-smart” battery policy strategy for Europe. Science, 2018, 361 (6407): 1075-1077. DOI: 10.1126/science.aau2516.

链接：

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6407/1075

供稿丨深圳市清新电源研究院

部门丨媒体信息中心科技情报部

撰稿人丨方小贱

主编丨张哲旭